"If Republicans fail to show that they can govern, swing voters may see little cause to support them."

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Politics could keep the gridlock going
By Jim Miller, November 30, 2014

Last week, with due ceremony and a few appropriate remarks, President Barack Obama pardoned a turkey. If some Republicans get their way, that will be the most significant thing he does during his final two years in office. Obama, of course, has other plans.

By issuing an executive order on immigration a few days prior to the turkey pardon, Obama signaled that he does not intend to spend the rest of his term attending solely to the needs of the giblet caucus. Republicans will get a chance to send signals of their own during the lame duck congressional session, and again in January, when the new Congress takes office.

So far, however,  the indications point to those signals being as bellicose as the president’s. That means Obama can pardon all the turkeys he likes but probably will not be talking much turkey with Congress.

The result? You guessed it. More gridlock.

With the Republicans now in the majority in both the House and Senate, they can and will prevent Democrats from advancing their agenda legislatively. Democrats, meanwhile, can rely on the presidential veto to prevent already enacted pieces of that agenda from being repealed. (And yes, that means the health care bill is not going anywhere for at least the next two years.)

The Democrats will blame the resulting stalemate on an intransigent Republican Party whose House members, they say, will not compromise on anything. The Republicans, meanwhile, will argue that Obama ended any chance at cooperation when he issued his executive order, which they consider both high-handed and unconstitutional.

We will find out in two years where voters put the blame.

In the meantime, Republicans can take solace in their power to prevent Democratic bills from passing. If you lean conservative, gridlock is in that sense good news. However, it also comes with a downside. If Republicans fail to show that they can govern, swing voters may see little cause to support them.

Democrats will have to find solace outside the legislative branch. Obama may issue more executive orders, and he can act with a relatively free hand in foreign policy. He’ll have to build the rest of his legacy on those legs without so angering voters that they turn away from his party in 2016.

A skilled politician on either side might break this stalemate, but only if he or she had a partner from the other party and a willingness to defy partisans who prize ideological purity above effective governance. Both the will to compromise and the courage to lead the party base rather than follow it seem in short supply.

For fans of politics-as-spectator-sport, the next two years will surely bring many gripping moments and dramatic storylines. Will Republicans shut down the government again? Will some Democrats break with their party to vote against unpopular sections of the health care bill?

For everyone else, the next two years will likely be disheartening at best. The endless recriminations will provide plenty of fodder for the talking heads on TV, but they will make it impossible for the government to address pressing issues. Comprehensive action on tax reform, climate change or the deficit seems unlikely. So does any real effort to relieve the increasingly pinched middle class or to ensure Social Security remains viable over the long-term.

But hey, at least that turkey is safe.
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