COMMENTS:
* ... I really don't think I can take another Bush in the White House, especially one who is taking credit for being a "moderate" when he's anything but.
* Actually, the GOP does have a built in advantage...the two senators per state no matter how empty they may be. I actually don't mind having the electoral college, but would prefer a two vote to the winner of the state, the rest proportional to the vote tally (definitely not the "congressional district" distribution). Still, advantage GOP. And if they can play with allocation of college votes in traditionally blue presidential states--then the system would be rigged for the GOP.
* Of course, Republicans have a big advantage in the Electoral College. A simple way to think of the advantage is go back and take away the 2 extra electoral votes that each state gets for their Senators and the 3 for DC. If the Republicans carry 26 states then they get 52 extra votes having nothing to do with the population. Even giving the Democrats DC, which is not the same thing since those Americans deserve a vote [while the US citizens in PR and Guam do not :(], the Democrats would only get 51 votes. Gore would have been comfortably elected if it weren't for the Republican advantage built into the Senate and the Electoral College.
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Jeb Bush ‘has the Electoral College’?
By Steve Benen, April 7, 2015
It’s awfully early to start thinking about which presidential candidate is likely to win which state – we have no real idea who the Republican nominee will even be – but electability is clearly an important consideration during this phase of the campaign. And the more primary/caucus voters weigh a candidate’s chances, the more various players will try to convince the public that they’re the one with the best odds.
With this in mind, The Hill ran a piece the other day from Eric Ham saying Hillary Clinton may have “inevitability” on her side, but it’s Jeb Bush who “has the Electoral College” on his side.
[The former Secretary of State’s] inevitability – should she decide to run – is real. Based on early polling numbers, Clinton has the path of least resistance to the Democratic nomination. Yet a head-to-head battle with Bush could spell doom, as his advantage in the all-important Electoral College is unquestioned.Actually, it’s easily questioned.
According to the piece in The Hill, Nevada and Ohio, both of which backed President Obama in 2008 and 2012, “stand solidly in Bush’s corner.” The column also argued, “Bush still enjoys enormous popularity in his home state of Florida, a key battleground state. That enduring popularity, along with the infrastructure of recently reelected Republican Gov. Rick Scott, will give Bush a decided edge over Clinton.”
Florida, it’s worth noting for context, also backed President Obama twice.
We could point to polls and various election models that suggest Nevada and Ohio would not be “solidly in Bush’s corner,” but let’s instead go in a different direction. For the sake of conversation, let’s say the piece in The Hill is correct. Let’s assume, just for kicks, that Jeb Bush can win the Republican nomination, win every state Mitt Romney carried in 2012, and also flip Florida, Ohio, and Nevada from “blue” to “red.”
If that’s exactly what happens in 2016, the Bush-led Republican ticket would end up 11 votes shy of 270 electoral votes. Or put another way, if Jeb carries every Romney state, plus the nation’s two biggest swing states, plus Nevada, he’d still lose.
The former governor’s “advantage in the all-important Electoral College is unquestioned”? Maybe it’s time to change that.
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