"Liberals will seek to turn the 2014 election into a referendum on 'radical Republicans' ... A McDaniel victory would give Democrats another shot at playing this winning card."

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Will McDaniel Cost GOP the Senate?
By Allysia Finley, June 10, 2014

The stars appear to be aligning for Republicans to take back control of the Senate, National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Rob Collins told Journal editors this week. But a win by former radio talk-show host Chris McDaniel in Mississippi's GOP runoff, he warns, could reorient the political scape in Democrats' favors.

If history is any guide, Republicans stand to pick up six seats, which is the average for opposition parties in midterms since the 1950s. The field also favors Republicans, who have seven fewer seats to defend this year than Democrats. Of the 21 Democratic seats that are up, seven are in states that Mitt Romney won, and six are in states where he received 54% or more of the vote (Arkansas, Alaska, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia).

Keep in mind, however, that Republicans lost Senate races two years ago in North Dakota (one point), Montana (four points), Indiana (six points) and Missouri (15 points)—all states where Mitt Romney won more than 53% of the vote. In 2010, Republicans also blew wild-cards in Colorado, Nevada and Delaware by nominating gaffe-prone candidates (though President Obama won all three states in 2012).

The GOP's candidate roster this year is stronger due to NRSC recruitment and training, which has expanded the field. Mr. Collins lists North Carolina, Louisiana, Arkansas and Alaska as the most likely pick-ups. Exceptional Republican nominees have put Michigan, Colorado, New Hampshire and Iowa into play, and Oregon and Virginia are within a stretching-arm's reach.

However, the NRSC executive fears that a McDaniel victory in Mississippi's June 24 GOP run-off—the challenger edged out Sen. Thad Cochran in the primary last week by just over a thousand votes—could cost Republicans a Senate seat and undercut Republican candidates nationwide. Mr. McDaniel has an extensive audio record of impolitic comments that will likely come back to bite him. For instance, Mr. McDaniel has referred to Hispanic women as "mamacitas," which few voters in or outside of Mississippi are likely to perceive as a term of endearment.

Democrats would love nothing more than to blare his gaffes through their media megaphone as they did two years ago with GOP Senate nominees Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock, which cost Republicans the Missouri and Indiana Senate races. Liberals will seek to turn the 2014 election into a referendum on "radical Republicans," which helped them hold the Senate in 2010 and 2012. A McDaniel victory would give Democrats another shot at playing this winning card.
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