"If people like Huckabee were honest with their followers, they would not be promising them the impossible."

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Snake oil salesmen vs. gay marriage reality
By Jennifer Rubin, October 10, 2014

In the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to let gay marriage bans fall in another batch of states, there are two types of responses from conservatives. The first acknowledges reality; the second misleads voters that there is something tangible to be done to stop the wave of social change.

In the first category, some Republicans like Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker have simply said in effect the boat has sailed. Others like Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) gave eloquent critiques of the Supreme Court and expressed his sincere disappointment the court did not act differently.

Understand the gay marriage — by a function of legislative or federal judicial action is now legal in California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin, as well as the District of Columbia. Because the Supreme Court would not take circuit court decisions banning gay marriage from the 4th, 10th, and 7th Circuits, an additional batch of states (Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, West Virginia and Wyoming) also must allow same-sex marriage. If the 9th Circuit decision striking down gay marriage holds (currently it has been stayed by Justice Anthony Kennedy’s order) that will add Idaho, Alaska, Arizona and Montana. The only way this changes is if the Supreme Court reverses itself (almost impossible to image) or if there is a constitutional amendment, which would require three-fourths of the states. It is hard to imagine how that number could be reached given that about 70 percent of states already have gay marriage.

Then there are the pols who would have us believe there is something realistically that can stop this and that those who refuse are just weaklings. Gov. Mike Huckabee went so far as to threaten to leave the GOP if Republicans “raise the white flag” on gay marriage. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) introduced an amendment which would prevent federal courts from striking down gay marriage bans, although it would do nothing about state courts or popular referenda (nor is it remotely possible that it will get through both houses of Congress and then get the required support from the states). These people are selling, to be blunt, snake oil. They are attacking fellow Republicans for being in the reality-based community, and just like the government shutdown they are making a show of doing “something” which in reality has no chance of success.

I asked two separate Huckabee advisers what he actually wanted Republicans to do. Neither one could explain what that meant in concrete terms. Spokeswoman Alice Stewart replied, “He wants GOP leaders to stand firm in support of life and traditional marriage.” And she provided this statement from Huckabee: “”If establishment Republicans continue to capitulate on the issues of abortion and gay marriage, and if the party accepts the changes as inevitable, we will lose.  The heart of the Republican party includes protecting the sanctity of life and traditional marriage, the party needs to publicly make the case for these issues.” Obviously he is simply repeating himself without explaining what can be done to re-establish gay marriage bans, undo public referenda and re-set the gay marriage debate to 1999, before the first state recognized gay marriage.

I suppose conservatives could fight to keep gay marriage bans at the state level where they still exist and defend them in court, but that is at best a staying action and at worst a colossal waste of time and money. In any event, that strategy applies to a minority of states and would not entail any role for Congress.

At bottom the politicians and leaders of traditional marriage groups refusing to accept reality have a problem even more fundamental than the legal issue: They have not won the debate with the American people. With each passing year more Americans support gay marriage, and more become resigned to it — as will continue as gay marriage spreads to the states listed above. If people like Huckabee were honest with their followers, they would not be promising them the impossible. And Huckabee should recognize that if those who have lost the gay marriage debate leave the GOP, they will risk ceding the presidency, both houses and a raft of issues to the Democrats. That will of course doom issues like partial birth abortion, religious liberty and other issues near and dear to conservatives.

Unfortunately this reaction is emblematic of the politics of empty gestures and illogical crusades. It bonds with voters over a sense of agrievement [sic], but offers no realistic political course to their desired end. And it vilifies their allies on a host of other issues who won’t play the look-how-heartfelt-I-am-unlike-those-squishy-politicians game. It is not behavior becoming of a national leader.

I should note that social change is always more permanent and more effective if it is organic and not legislatively imposed. In this case however the Supreme Court gave a substantial amount of deference for many years up through the historic decisions last year. Had social conservatives not insisted on passing DOMA, it might have kept the Supreme Court at bay for a few more years and alerted the traditional marriage community that they had to capture the hearts and minds of America, not rely on a federal statute to try to squash what was happening in the states.

At any rate, we are where we are and voters will have to decide whether they are being sold a bill of goods from those promising not to accept the law in the vast majority of states. Unfortunately, all that effort could be better spent shoring up heterosexual marriage, preserving school choice and fighting illegitimate intrusions into religious liberty.
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