"... the rise of Mr. Carson suggests the best-laid plans of the party for 2016 may not go as smoothly as desired."

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G.O.P. Hopes for Unity May Be Upset by Ben Carson
By Trip Gabriel, December 21, 2014

A conservative think tank recently sent Ben Carson, a potential presidential candidate and fierce critic of the federal health care overhaul, a series of messages to post on Twitter during the grilling in the House of Jonathan Gruber, the M.I.T. economist who advised the Obama administration.

Mr. Carson, a retired pediatric neurosurgeon, has set off a prairie fire of rank-and-file conservatives urging him to run for the Republican nomination. He liked the think tank’s idea, but he knows that he excites supporters because he is an unscripted outsider. So he wrote his own Twitter posts, including, “Why was it necessary to disrupt entire medical system to take care of the needs of 15% of the people?”

With former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida moving closer to declaring his candidacy, and the Republican establishment determined not to repeat the mistakes of the lengthy nominating fight of 2012, the rise of Mr. Carson suggests the best-laid plans of the party for 2016 may not go as smoothly as desired.

Even as Mr. Bush began to quietly line up donors, and the attention of the news media turned last week to policy disputes over Cuba between two other potential high-profile contenders, Senators Marco Rubio and Rand Paul, Mr. Carson was riding an under-the-radar groundswell.

In Iowa, which holds the first voting for nominees, a local chairman or chairwoman has been recruited in all 99 counties, something no other potential candidate can claim. A national committee to draft Mr. Carson into the race, Run Ben Run, has raised more money than the high-profile outfit urging voters to get “Ready for Hillary.”

Though few Republican strategists expect Mr. Carson, 63, to be the nominee, they acknowledge his potential to throw a wrench into the establishment’s desire to unify early, and the danger of turning off moderates if his divisive views continue to gain traction.

Mr. Carson has built a profile on heavy exposure as a commentator on Fox News, an uplifting biography and, especially, intemperate criticism of the Age of Obama that might seem to disqualify a major-party candidate. An African-American, he has called the president’s health care law “the worst thing that has happened in this nation since slavery.”

He has said legalizing same-sex marriage would open the door to accepting pedophilia and bestiality — remarks that led to his withdrawal as commencement speaker at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine last year.

He has refused to withdraw repeated comparisons of the United States under the Obama administration to Nazi Germany.

His unfiltered remarks are embraced by parts of the Republican base in inverse proportion to the fits of outrage they inspire on the left. “To the base who are looking for someone completely different to shake things up, that probably makes them more of a fan,” said Craig Robinson, a former political director of the Iowa Republican Party.

In Iowa, which has a history of rewarding nontraditional candidates, strategists regard Mr. Carson as more formidable than outsiders in the 2012 race like the pizza executive Herman Cain and former Senator Rick Santorum, who won the 2012 caucus.

An October poll of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa by The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics put Mr. Carson in second place, with 11 percent, behind Mitt Romney.

A Fox News survey released last week of Republican voters nationally put Mr. Carson in the middle of a crowded field behind Mr. Romney and Mr. Bush.

“At some point the party will wake up from its hangover and pick someone they think can actually go through” a general election, said an experienced Republican strategist in Iowa who has worked with mainstream candidates, speaking on the condition of anonymity to candidly discuss party matters.

Signs point to Mr. Carson declaring his candidacy by a May 1 deadline he has set. A Houston lawyer, Terry Giles, interviewed operatives for a potential campaign this month at a Ritz-Carlton in New York and the Grand Hyatt in Washington. Mr. Carson spent the past week in Israel on a fact-finding trip to gain some foreign policy credibility.

One of the clearest indicators of his intention to run is that he has met recently with communications experts to tone down his remarks. In an interview, he blamed “the P.C. police” for frequently twisting his meaning. “When I mention bestiality or pedophilia in the same sentence with homosexuality, people say ‘Carson says they’re the same.’ Of course they’re not the same,” he said. “That point was if you change the definition of marriage for one group, you’ll have to change it for the next group and the next group.”

On immigration, Mr. Carson said he would not offer legal status to any of the 11 million undocumented immigrants in the country. “They found their way here,” he said, “they can find their way wherever.”

Raised in Detroit by a single mother with a third-grade education, he graduated from Yale and the University of Michigan Medical School, before being named director of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins. His operations to separate conjoined twins brought him international fame.

An audience in Indianapolis, where he spoke recently, gasped when his introducer said he had received 60 honorary doctorates.

His up-by-the-bootstraps life has convinced him that government aid to the poor creates a culture of dependency. His message of self-empowerment is one that he and others hope Republicans can use to peel away African-American voters, 90 percent of whom voted for Democrats in the midterm elections.

Critics on the left say he appeals to white conservatives in no small part because he plays down the role of racism in America.

After the Indianapolis speech, sponsored by a Christian ministry group aimed at men, scores of admirers, black and white, lined up to buy his latest book, “One Nation.” It follows an earlier memoir, “Gifted Hands,” which was made into a 2009 TV movie.

“I like the fact he didn’t make excuses,” said Denise Parsley, a legal assistant who waited in line. “He’s not the type who thinks everybody should get a free handout. This nation was built by people who worked hard, and we’re getting away from that.”

Whether Mr. Carson can build the infrastructure of a real campaign and compete for donors with traditional candidates is an open question.

Mr. Giles, who is preparing to be campaign chairman, projected raising $100 million to fuel a Carson campaign through the first four primaries by tapping small donors. Already, the Run Ben Run effort, a “super PAC,” has raised $12.2 million.

But behind that impressive cash haul is the problem facing most small-donor fund-raising: The group spent most of its income on direct mail and similar activities to raise its funds, according to the Federal Election Commission.

Armstrong Williams, Mr. Carson’s business manager and closest adviser, whose nickname for his friend is “Seabiscuit,” complained that Run Ben Run exists “to benefit the people that run it, not the Ben who’s running.”

The super PAC’s greatest asset is its record of thousands of small donors excited by Mr. Carson. But a Carson campaign would have to pay to use that list.

“If the time ever comes for us to have a conversation, the question is going to be: How much do you pay us?” Mr. Williams said. “Before we even considered this, they found the right Seabiscuit, and they’re going to ride that Seabiscuit until they can’t no more.”
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