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Trump’s Circus Will Damage the G.O.P.
By John Cassidy, June 17, 2015
As you probably saw, Jeb Bush gave a big speech a couple of days ago, in which he formally entered the Republican primary, vowing to “take command of our future” and “get events in the world moving our way again.” It wasn’t the greatest piece of oratory, but Bush is still the strong favorite to be the G.O.P. candidate, and he finally showed a bit of vim and vigor, bounding onto a stage in Miami like the late Chris Farley doing an impression of an eager, over-amped preppy. Forty-eight hours later, the Republican Party and its media supporters are busy debating Bush’s proposals, which included pledges to boost the economy’s growth rate to four per cent, simplify the tax code, and “clean up the mess in Washington.”
That last sentence is largely fiction, of course. When I turned on Rush Limbaugh’s show on Tuesday, he was busy playing clips from Donald Trump’s nutty announcement speech at Trump Tower, in which he reminded everyone how rich he is, pledged to build a wall across the southern border at Mexico’s expense, and said, “We need a leader that wrote ‘The Art of the Deal.’ ” A chortling Limbaugh wasn’t hiding his enthusiasm for Trump’s entry into the race. On Tuesday night, Trump was on “The O’Reilly Factor,” which is still the most popular show on the Fox News network. On Wednesday morning, his picture was on the front page of the New York Post, next to the headline “Trump: I’ll Make White House Mine.” (The background image depicted the White House with a large gold “TRUMP” sign protruding from the roof.) Thursday night, Trump is slated to be back on Fox, this time on “Hannity,” for a full hour.
That’s Limbaugh and the Murdoch press, you might say. What do you expect from them? My answer is that Limbaugh, Fox, and many other actors in the G.O.P. circus are commercial enterprises, and I would expect them to pursue the highest ratings. Obviously, they are supportive of the Republican Party’s broader aims, too, but if they are forced to choose between the long-term health of the Party and an immediate jump in audience figures, they will go with the ratings every time.
Trump, for all his narcissism and offensiveness, has shown that he can deliver mass audiences. For that reason alone, he is guaranteed plenty of attention from the media outlets that serve as primary news sources for many Republican-primary voters. Bush, the Republican National Committee, and the rest of the party establishment would love to ignore Trump and his antics, but the demands of “free enterprise”—the same free enterprise that Bush lauded in his announcement speech—won’t allow it.
In the more serious parts of the Republican media, the attitude toward this great irony appears to be one of resigned acceptance, and, in some cases, gallows optimism. I heard several commentators saying that Trump would make the other G.O.P. candidates look good by comparison. Some conservative commentators appear to understand the dangers, however. “I’m not laughing. I’ll be honest with you, I’m crying,” Michael Graham, the host of the Weekly Standard’s political podcast, said. “I was so hoping he would not get in, just because of the clown show of 2004 and 2008, and how delightful it was going to be that the biggest clowns in the race were going to be Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. And now this TV-show fiasco throws himself into this otherwise energetic, spirited, and worthwhile G.O.P. primary.”
The immediate question is whether Trump will gain admission to the upcoming television debates, which start in August. If he is onstage, his presence will be a huge distraction. If he is excluded, he’ll be on the sidelines, crying bloody murder. At the moment, it looks like he will be present. Fox, the host of the first debate, has said that it will invite the top ten candidates in surveys of likely Republican voters. According to the Real Clear Politics poll average, Trump currently sits in ninth place, with 3.6 per cent of the vote. And it seems likely that the publicity surrounding his announcement will give him a bump.
To be sure, Trump could blow up and withdraw at any time. In 2012, he flirted with running for months and then decided against it. This time, he’s gone further—although, according to reports on Tuesday, he still hasn’t filed the necessary papers with the Federal Election Commission. Once the media starts delving into his financial records and business dealings, which include numerous bankruptcy filings by Trump-branded hotels and casinos, he might well have second thoughts.
For now, though, he’s in the race, busy trying to suck up the oxygen of all the other Republican candidates. Somewhere, Hillary Clinton is smiling. Jon Stewart, too. “Thank you, Donald Trump, for making my last six weeks my best six weeks,” the departing comic said on Tuesday’s edition of “The Daily Show.” “He is putting me in some kind of comedy hospice where all I’m getting is just straight morphine.”
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