No answers yet, however.

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Eight Questions for the New Year in Politics
By Ryan Lizza, January 1, 2016

1. Can Donald Trump survive a loss in Iowa?

You wouldn’t know it from listening to Trump at his rallies, where he still spends much of his time talking about his leads in national polls, which don’t matter much at this point, and unscientific Internet polls about his last debate performance, but Trump has lost his lead in Iowa, where Ted Cruz is ahead of him by three points in the Huffington Post’s average of polls. (Trump has also flatlined in New Hampshire.)

Trump has said repeatedly that he will win Iowa, and a loss there may render the entire Trump phenomenon as dead as the Howard Dean campaign was, in 2004, when the “inevitable” nominee was trounced in the state. In the new year, watch for Trump to start lowering expectations and declaring that he might not win Iowa, after all.

2. Can Bernie Sanders win a state?

The Democratic race has been overshadowed by the Trump-centric Republican campaign, especially since Hillary Clinton’s Benghazi testimony, which was hailed as a political success in the media. Meanwhile, Sanders has failed to break through with groups outside of his base of white liberals. Still, if Sanders wins Iowa and/or New Hampshire, Clinton’s inevitability will be damaged, and even if she still wins the nomination—as good a bet as anything in politics right now—she will be a weakened candidate for the general election.

3. Who will be the G.O.P.’s comeback kid in New Hampshire?

Historically, New Hampshire voters do not make up their minds until very late. Many decide in the last twenty-four hours before voting. So most of the polling we’ve seen in the state is pretty meaningless. The campaign there is just getting started. Don’t discount the possibility that one of the more establishment or moderate candidates who currently seems to be treading water—Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, or John Kasich—will vault to first or second place.

4. Will Super PACs matter?

Super PACs, which can receive unlimited donations from individuals, were supposed to have a major impact on the Presidential race in 2015. But so far that hasn’t happened. In 2016, look to see if one of these groups comes to the rescue of a candidate who ran out of money or had a poor showing in an early state, either of which might otherwise drive the candidate from the race.

5. Will the Clinton e-mail scandal disappear or blow up?

The Justice Department is still investigating the handling of classified information that was stored on Hillary Clinton’s private e-mail server while she was Secretary of State. Nobody seems to know the status of this investigation. It’s exceedingly rare, to say the least, for the likely nominee of a major party to be the subject of a federal investigation like this. Ignore what her political opponents say about the e-mail scandal. The issue will live or die depending on what Justice investigators, the only ones who know all the facts, decide.

6. Can Paul Ryan avoid the fate of John Boehner?

After Speaker Paul Ryan shepherded an enormous spending bill through the House this month, some activists on the right started to attack him as a traitor to the conservative cause. He will be under intense pressure in the new year to run the House in a more democratic fashion than Boehner did, and to deliver significant policy victories for conservatives, two goals that can be in tension with one another. Next fall, right before the election, when the government’s annual spending authority runs out, he will have to avoid the inevitable threats from the right to shut the government down over Obamacare or immigration or Planned Parenthood or whatever the issue of the moment is among conservatives.

7. Will Barack Obama help or hurt the Democratic nominee?

The single most important factor in next year’s election will be the state of the economy. If the economy is continuing to improve and growth is strong and unemployment low, the Democrats will have a modest edge. But dragging them down will be the natural exhaustion the electorate generally feels after eight years of seeing the same party in power. Obama’s own popularity is closely tied to the economy, but he can help the Democrat nominee by making steady progress on a popular domestic agenda, combatting ISIS, and proving that his more unpopular policies (like the Affordable Care Act) are working and that his legacy initiatives should be continued and improved upon, as Clinton promises, rather than overturned, as the G.O.P. promises.

8. Will there be a contested Republican convention in Cleveland next July?

Probably not.
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