Expectations and reality

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The wave of expectation and the crash of reality
By EUGENE ROBINSON

I’m cautious about the conventional wisdom that the Democratic Party is about to get flattened by a Republican steamroller. Pollsters are less certain than they’d like you to believe about who’s a “likely voter” and who isn’t.

It’s easy to imagine how Democrats, facing near-unanimous predictions of a wipeout, could bestir themselves to narrow the enthusiasm gap by just enough to turn a potential “wave” election into a regular midterm setback for the party in power.

Then again, Democrats might react to the prospect of big losses by pulling the blanket over their heads and going back to sleep. If this happens, Republicans could plausibly win not just the House but the Senate as well. America will have sent Washington a message – and Washington will go on, basically, with business as usual.

The conservatives and tea party activists who believe they’re going to fundamentally change the relationship between citizens and their government will become just as disillusioned as the progressives and independents who believed they were fundamentally changing that relationship in 2008. Two years from now, we might well be looking at yet another wave – flowing in the opposite direction. Our politics have become tidal.

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OK, if the revolutionaries of the right aren’t likely to make a serious attempt to get the federal budget under control – and, really, anyone who refuses even to discuss raising taxes isn’t serious – then at least they can reverse some of what Obama has done, right?

No, not really.

The president will still have veto power, which makes the whole “undo Obama” thing moot. But set this aside for a moment. Look at the president’s most controversial accomplishment, health care reform. Republicans vow to repeal it. But in their “Pledge to America” manifesto, they promise to replace the system they call “Obamacare” with ... elements of “Obamacare” that the GOP seeks to rebrand.

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... Here’s the real question: Would Republicans in charge of one or both houses of Congress work with the Obama administration or simply obstruct it at every turn?

If they choose the former, true believers will accuse them of aiding and abetting the enemy. If the latter, they open themselves to charges of playing politics at a time when the nation can ill afford such foolishness.

I expect obstruction. That would be bad for the country, but it would be a gift to a White House seeking to regain its political footing. Every time Obama reached out to Capitol Hill and had his hand slapped away, more independents – frustrated with partisanship and inaction – would drift back into his column.  He’d be well positioned for 2012.

That’s the thing about electoral waves: They crash on the perilous shores of reality.